The Australian Dollar (AUD) saw some upward movement against the US Dollar (USD) after the release of Trade Balance data showing a surplus of 6,009 million MoM in July, surpassing expectations. This increase follows the previous reading of 5,589 million. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock also indicated that it is too early to consider rate cuts, with the board not expecting rate reductions in the near future. However, recent figures have shown pressure on the Australian Dollar as Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the second quarter fell short of market expectations, along with contractionary manufacturing activity in August.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar faced downward pressure following below-expectation data, including the US JOLTS Job Openings dropping to 7.673 million in July. Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI showed continued contraction in factory activity for the fifth consecutive month. Traders are now looking towards upcoming economic data releases, such as the US ISM Services PMI and Initial Jobless Claims, as well as Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), to gauge the potential for a rate cut by the Fed in the near future.
In terms of global economic trends, Bank of America (BoA) has revised China’s economic growth forecast for the coming years, with a lowered projection for 2024 and 2025. This adjustment could have implications for Australia, given the close trade relationship between the two countries. Australia’s GDP growth in the second quarter missed expectations, while the Judo Bank Composite PMI showed expansion in August, primarily driven by services activity.
Technically, the Australian Dollar remains above 0.6700 against the US Dollar, with the AUD/USD pair positioned below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The pair has potential support levels at 0.6575 and 0.6470 on the downside, while resistance levels are at 0.6731 and 0.6742. A break above these resistance levels could lead to a test of the seven-month high at 0.6798.
In summary, the Australian Dollar’s performance against the US Dollar has been influenced by a mix of domestic and global economic data, with traders closely watching upcoming releases for further cues. The trade surplus data, along with statements from the RBA Governor, have provided some support for the Aussie, while concerns about GDP growth and manufacturing activity have applied downward pressure. The US Dollar, on the other hand, faces its own challenges, with below-expectation economic indicators contributing to its depreciation. Market participants are keeping a close eye on upcoming economic data to guide their trading decisions in the near term.
