The GBP/USD pair continues to show strength despite overbought conditions, with the pound gaining ground against the US dollar. The positive shift in risk sentiment and easing fears over conflicts in the Middle East have contributed to the upward trend of the pound. As a result, GBP/USD is trading near its highest level since March 2022, around 1.3230. Market mood is improving, with UK’s FTSE 100 Index up 0.6% and US stock index futures rising between 0.1% and 0.25%, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market.
However, there are concerns about a potential downturn for GBP/USD after the recent rally. The pair experienced marginal losses at the beginning of the week after being rejected near a key resistance trendline at 1.3229 for the third time. The RSI and Stochastic oscillator are both in the overbought zone, signaling a high risk of a downside correction. A move below the support level at 1.3180 could trigger additional losses towards the 1.3025-1.3085 zone. Breaking below the steep ascending trendline could lead to a rapid decline towards the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages found between 1.2890-1.2900.
According to Elliott Wave intraday analysis, GBP/USD is showing a bullish sequence with a higher high bullish structure from a recent low. The pair has seen a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure, indicating a clear bullish trend. The current wave count suggests that the pair is in wave (iii) of a larger wave ((i)), with potential for further upside momentum. After completing wave (iv), the pair is expected to rally one more leg to complete wave ((i)) before a corrective wave ((ii)) unfolds.
Overall, GBP/USD remains on a bullish trajectory despite overbought conditions. The positive shift in risk sentiment and easing fears over conflicts have contributed to the pound’s strength against the US dollar. While there are concerns about a potential downturn, the Elliott Wave analysis suggests further upside potential for the pair. Traders will be closely monitoring key support levels and technical indicators for potential signs of a reversal or continuation of the bullish trend.
