Canadian jobs data is not expected to have a significant impact on the CAD today, with a consensus anticipating a standard 25k gain in jobs, a small uptick in unemployment to 6.5%, and high wage growth at 4.8%. The data may not prompt any aggressive moves by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in terms of interest rate cuts, as there is no clear need for the BoC to accelerate its pace of cuts at this point. Instead, the focus is on US jobs data, which will likely have a larger impact on the short-term direction of the USD and USD/CAD exchange rate. Weak US numbers could push the USD/CAD back to the 1.34 level, while positive data could drive it higher to 1.36+.
In the short term, the USD has been trading around the 1.35 area, with losses from the mid-week peak in the upper 1.35s giving the technical picture a slightly negative outlook. Spot is currently hovering above key short-term support at 1.3490, which could potentially act as a bear flag base. If this support is broken, the USD may retest the low 1.34 zone. Resistance levels are at 1.3580 and 1.3635, with a break above these levels potentially pushing the USD/CAD exchange rate higher.
Overall, the Canadian job data is not expected to have a major impact on the CAD today, as the market is not pricing in any aggressive moves by the BoC. Instead, focus is on US jobs data, which will drive the short-term direction of the USD and USD/CAD exchange rate. The USD has been trading around the 1.35 area, with the technical picture showing a slightly negative outlook. Key support levels to watch are at 1.3490, with resistance at 1.3580 and 1.3635 potentially driving the USD/CAD exchange rate higher.
In conclusion, while Canadian job data may not have a significant impact on the CAD today, it is important to keep an eye on US jobs data, which will likely have a larger influence on the short-term direction of the USD and USD/CAD exchange rate. The USD is currently trading around the 1.35 area, with key support levels at 1.3490 and resistance levels at 1.3580 and 1.3635. The technical picture shows a slightly negative outlook, with potential for the USD/CAD exchange rate to retest the low 1.34 zone if support at 1.3490 is broken.
