Former President Donald Trump is currently leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 10 points in the 2024 presidential race, according to data from the Polymarket prediction platform. This marks a significant shift from earlier betting odds in September, where Harris held the advantage. The latest Polymarket figures show Trump with a 55% chance of winning the presidency in November, compared to Harris’ 45%. Trump has also taken the lead in key swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Arizona and Georgia, in particular, show the widest margins favoring Trump, representing crucial battlegrounds for the GOP candidate.
Trump’s rise in the polls comes amid ongoing speculation about the upcoming election. Despite his growing momentum, financial analyst Jim Cramer offered a different perspective, predicting that Harris would win the 2024 race. His comments stirred conversation on social media, particularly among cryptocurrency traders who often reference the ‘inverse Cramer effect’—a belief that the opposite of Cramer’s predictions tends to occur. Trump’s increasing popularity on Polymarket coincides with his vocal support for the cryptocurrency industry. In September, Trump made headlines when he used Bitcoin to purchase burgers at a New York campaign event, an effort seemingly aimed at attracting crypto voters.
His campaign also recently launched World Liberty Financial, a decentralized finance (DeFi) project with its own native token. Reactions to Trump’s embrace of crypto have been mixed. Journalist Nic Carter warned that the project could pose risks to Trump’s campaign, arguing that it could become a target for hackers, given its DeFi structure. However, other experts, such as Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings, downplay the impact of the election on cryptocurrency prices. Tapiero recently predicted that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 regardless of who wins the 2024 election.
In a separate report, it was revealed that over 87% of Polymarket users did not make any profit on the platform. Out of 171,113 active crypto wallets, 149,383, or 87.3%, did not record profits. Only 12.7% of wallets, totaling 21,730, managed to achieve positive returns. Among the profitable wallets, the earnings remain modest for most, with only approximately 2,138 wallets earning more than $1,000. Most wallets saw gains of less than $100, indicating that substantial returns are relatively rare on the platform.
Furthermore, leading financial data and news service provider Bloomberg LP is set to incorporate election odds data from the crypto betting platform Polymarket into its widely used Terminal. Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market operating on the Polygon network, has become a prominent platform for tracking real-time election odds. The platform allows users to bet on a wide range of event outcomes, leveraging transparent on-chain data and smart contracts for trade execution and payouts. By integrating Polymarket’s data into its Terminal, Bloomberg aims to provide its users with access to the latest election predictions and trends in the crypto betting market. This move highlights the increasing recognition of blockchain-based prediction markets as valuable sources of information in the financial industry.
