The Canadian Dollar (CAD) showed a softer tone on Tuesday, despite easing against other major currencies, it managed to move higher against the US Dollar (USD). The USD fell across the board, causing USD/CAD to see a third consecutive day of declines. Canada is relatively data-light until Friday’s GDP update, where the Q2 GDP is expected to decrease to 1.6%. However, market focus is likely to shift to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (PCE) figures.
Markets are continuing to sell off the Greenback as expectations for rate cuts remain high. The CAD is struggling to find its own momentum and is influenced by broader market flows. The Federal Reserve (Fed) adopting a dovish stance is a major topic of discussion, with rate markets pricing in over 35% odds of a 50 bps rate cut in September. Traders expect a total of 100 bps in cuts by the end of the year.
The USD/CAD price action has been on a downward trend, with the pair breaking below 1.3500 and testing six-month lows near 1.3450. The bearish movement in the chart has led to bids falling below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3628. Bulls are running out of room to find support before momentum breaks through the lower end of the congestion zone between 1.3600 and 1.3400.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key economic indicator released by Statistics Canada on a monthly and quarterly basis. It measures the total value of goods and services produced in Canada during a specific period. A high GDP reading is considered bullish for the CAD, while a low reading is bearish. The upcoming Q2 GDP update on Friday is expected to show a decrease to 1.6% from the previous 1.7%.
In conclusion, the Canadian Dollar has shown a softer tone against major currencies, but has managed to strengthen against the USD. Market focus is on the upcoming GDP update for Q2 and the US PCE figures. The USD/CAD price action has been bearish, with the pair testing six-month lows and breaking below key levels. The Fed’s dovish stance and expectations for rate cuts continue to drive market sentiment. The upcoming GDP update will be closely watched for its impact on the CAD.
