The Mexican Peso has shown strength against the US Dollar recently, with a slight uptick on Friday after three consecutive days of gains. This was supported by an increase in US consumer sentiment, which boosted market risk appetite and led to a weakening of the US Dollar. Hopes for a September Fed rate cut are also high, contributing to the positive outlook for the Mexican Peso.
The Mexican Peso is still down over 14% from its peak in 2024 against the Greenback, despite recovering significant ground in recent days. While Peso bulls have made progress, there is still ground to cover before the MXN can be considered to be on balance against the USD. USD/MXN has closed lower for most of the past seven trading days, although it continues to trade above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 18.34, indicating some resistance for Greenback shorts.
Looking ahead, Mexico has limited representation on the economic calendar for the coming week, and investors will be keeping an eye on the start of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The symposium, beginning next Thursday, is expected to have appearances from numerous central bank policymakers, which could impact market sentiment and the direction of the Mexican Peso.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 67.8 in August, beating the forecast of 66.9 and the previous month’s figure of 66.4. This increase in consumer sentiment has had a positive impact on market sentiment, with investors showing more willingness to invest in riskier assets. The 5-year Inflation Expectations also held steady at 3.0% in August, indicating some stability in consumer expectations.
Overall, the Mexican Peso is looking for further gains, although the momentum remains somewhat thin. Despite recent gains against the US Dollar, there is still progress to be made before the MXN can be considered to be on a more balanced footing. The positive consumer sentiment in the US and hopes for a Fed rate cut in September have contributed to the favorable outlook for the Mexican Peso, but investors will be closely watching upcoming economic events and central bank policymaker appearances for further direction.
