The recent elections in Catalonia have implications that stretch beyond the region into the larger Spanish political arena, influencing the upcoming European elections. Negotiations among political forces in Barcelona to form a local government will impact the campaign for the EU vote on June 9th. The Catalan Socialists, PSC, won but did not gain enough seats to rule Catalonia. The separatist forces have lost momentum, with the Republican Left of Catalonia suffering a significant vote drain. They have temporarily put aside their original intention to secede and are now negotiating with the central government in Madrid. This shift has polarized Spanish politics and society since the 2017 referendum, with most Spaniards and Catalan loyalists opposing the amnesty granted to some secessionist leaders by the center-left government led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.
The Catalan question remains a divisive issue in Spain, with parties like the center-right People’s Party (PP) and Vox, a national-conservative party, gaining popularity by taking a hardline stance against the socialist government’s proposed amnesty for separatist leaders. Pedro Sanchez’s popularity has been fluctuating in relation to his handling of the Catalan crisis, with the rejection of the separatist option by the European Union institutions and member states helping to ease tensions. Other factors influencing the EU vote in Spain include issues like farmers’ discontent, gender and LGBTQ+ rights, and anti-migration sentiments, all of which are significant topics of debate in Brussels.
The European elections are crucial for Spanish political parties, with the People’s Party leading in voting intentions according to the Euronews Polls Centre. The PP’s front-runner in the European elections is Catalan MEP Dolors Montserrat, who served as health minister during the 2017 separatist referendum. Vox, the national-conservative party, has chosen a Catalan politician as its top candidate, aiming to gather votes in Catalonia, a region traditionally dominated by regional nationalist parties, socialists, and leftists. The Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) has chosen a prominent figure, Teresa Ribera, the current minister of the green transition, as its front-runner for the European vote.
The distribution of Catalan nationalist votes in the European Parliament will see Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya’s few MEPs joining the Greens group, while Junts, the party of Carles Puigdemont, will be part of the Non-Attached group. The potential return of Puigdemont could influence voting intentions in the region, but much will depend on the signing of the amnesty decree by Pedro Sanchez. The political situation in Spain remains fluid, with opinions potentially changing rapidly in the weeks leading up to the elections.
Overall, the Catalan elections have set the stage for a complex political landscape in Spain ahead of the European vote. Negotiations to form a local government in Catalonia will impact the campaign for the EU elections, with parties like the People’s Party and Vox gaining popularity by taking a hardline stance against separatism. The distribution of Catalan nationalist votes in the European Parliament will see various groups represented, reflecting the diverse political landscape of the region. The upcoming weeks will be crucial for Spanish political parties as they seek to secure votes and navigate the complex issues that are shaping the EU elections in June.
