The EUR/USD pair slipped lower on Friday as political upheaval in Europe crimped Euro demand. The Euro fell to a low of 1.0670 before recovering slightly to the 1.0700 handle during the US market session. Recent European parliamentary elections saw a shift towards right-of-center political parties, leading to a snap election in France. This has put pressure on the Euro, while on the US side, negative data such as a dip in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey Index is raising concerns about a possible economic downturn.
European Central Bank (ECB) officials are working to reassure the market as the Euro has underperformed compared to other major currencies this week. French President Macron dissolved the government and called for a snap election to combat the rise of right-wing contender Marine Le Pen, who won in the European parliamentary elections. This political instability in France, coupled with Le Pen’s proposed tax cuts and reduced retirement age, has raised concerns about economic strain for the European Union.
The UoM Consumer Sentiment Index survey dropped to 65.6 in June, missing expectations and hitting a six-month low. This decline reflects growing consumer worries about the US economy, with inflation expectations also rising. Market sentiment was further dampened by the Federal Reserve’s latest Summary of Economic Projections, which showed lower rate cuts than expected by the market. Despite the Fed’s cautious stance, rate markets still anticipate a cut in September.
In terms of technical outlook, the EUR/USD pair fell to a six-week low of 1.0676 before recovering slightly during the US market session. Daily candlesticks have dropped below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0804, setting the stage for a potential slide towards April’s swing low near 1.0600. The hourly chart also shows a downward trend, with the pair descending from 1.0900 through June.
Overall, the EUR/USD pair is facing pressure due to political uncertainties in Europe and negative economic data in the US. The market is uncertain about the number of Fed rate cuts anticipated in the coming months, leading to fluctuations in the currency pair. Traders will be closely watching developments in Europe, particularly the upcoming snap election in France, as well as US economic indicators for further insights into the future direction of the EUR/USD pair.
