Oil prices saw a 2% increase on Monday due to hopes of rising demand during the Northern Hemisphere’s peak summer driving season and concerns that Opec+ production cuts may lead to supply deficits later in the year. Brent futures for September delivery rose by $1.25 to $86.25 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery increased by $1.27 to $82.81 per barrel, marking its highest close since April 26. Both contracts gained about 6% in June as Opec+ extended deep oil output cuts into 2025, resulting in supply deficits being forecasted for the third quarter.
Analysts at JP Morgan noted that demand indicators, especially in the US market, are strong, and peak refinery demand for crude is expected to last through August. In the US, oil production and demand for major products reached four-month highs in April, supporting prices. The focus now shifts to remarks from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the release of minutes from the latest policy meeting, and US nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday. The Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 to combat inflation may impact oil demand negatively, as higher rates can slow economic growth.
Hopes of an interest rate cut by the Fed along with rising political concerns in Europe and between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah group have helped maintain prices. In France, opposition to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) after it won the first round of a snap parliamentary election is growing, leading to increased market volatility. In the US, Democrats have ruled out replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, despite concerns over his debate performance and former President Donald Trump’s potential return to power. Oil product exports from Russia’s Black Sea port of Tuapse are expected to increase by 59.7% in July compared to June.
Traders are also monitoring the impact of hurricanes on oil and gas production and consumption in the Americas. Hurricane Beryl, described as an “extremely dangerous” storm, is moving towards the Caribbean’s Windward Islands, posing a threat of floods, storm surges, and life-threatening winds. With the ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and natural disasters affecting oil markets, the situation remains volatile. It is crucial for investors and market participants to stay informed about the latest developments and their potential implications on oil prices and supply dynamics. The combination of supply constraints and rising demand during the summer driving season could lead to further price fluctuations in the coming months.
