Vietnam’s energy sector may be on the cusp of a significant turnaround thanks to recent oil discoveries, potentially reversing a decade-long decline in domestic production. The Hai Su Vang field, discovered in 2025, is estimated to hold over 430 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE), marking the largest find in Southeast Asia in two decades. This discovery could significantly impact Vietnam’s energy independence and economic outlook, shifting it from a net importer to a potential exporter of oil.
For decades, Vietnam relied on offshore production, beginning with the Bach Ho field in 1986. However, output has steadily decreased from a peak of 365,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2005 to under 120,000 bpd projected for 2025. This decline forced Vietnam to become a net importer of petroleum products in 2017, increasing its reliance on foreign sources and impacting its trade balance.
Vietnam’s Oil Prospects: A Potential Game Changer
The Hai Su Vang discovery, spearheaded by Murphy Oil Corporation, represents a pivotal moment for Vietnam’s energy future. Initial drilling in 2025 revealed 370 feet of oil pay, prompting further appraisal. The subsequent Hai Su Vang-2X well in 2026 confirmed reserves exceeding 430 MMBOE, positioning it as the most substantial oil find in the ASEAN region in twenty years.
This discovery is particularly noteworthy given the broader context of Southeast Asian oil exploration. Indonesia’s Banyu Urip field, discovered in 2001, and Malaysia’s Gumusut-Kakap field, found in 2003, represent significant regional finds. However, the scale and potential impact of Hai Su Vang are attracting considerable attention. According to industry analysts, the field’s relatively shallow water depth could facilitate quicker and more cost-effective development.
The Decline and the Need for New Resources
Vietnam’s declining oil production is linked to the natural depletion of existing fields and limited new discoveries in recent years. The country’s increasing industrialization and economic growth have simultaneously driven up energy demand. This combination created a widening gap between domestic supply and consumption, necessitating imports. The Ministry of Industry and Trade reported a significant increase in petroleum imports in 2023, highlighting the urgency of securing new energy sources.
Additionally, Vietnam’s refining capacity has expanded, further increasing demand for crude oil. While the country has invested in upgrading its refining infrastructure, it still relies heavily on imported crude to meet its needs. The Dung Quat Refinery, Vietnam’s largest, processes approximately 6.5 million tons of crude oil annually, but this capacity is insufficient to cover the country’s total demand.
Implications for Vietnam’s Economy and Energy Security
The successful development of the Hai Su Vang field could have far-reaching economic benefits for Vietnam. Increased domestic oil production would reduce the country’s dependence on imports, improving its trade balance and strengthening its energy security. The project is also expected to generate significant revenue for the government through taxes and royalties.
However, the development of Hai Su Vang is not without its challenges. Investment decisions require careful consideration of global oil prices, geopolitical risks, and environmental concerns. The Vietnamese government is currently working to establish a clear regulatory framework to attract foreign investment and ensure sustainable development of the field. Furthermore, infrastructure development, including pipelines and storage facilities, will be crucial for bringing the oil to market.
The discovery also impacts regional energy dynamics. Increased Vietnamese production could potentially alter the supply landscape in Southeast Asia, influencing pricing and trade patterns. Neighboring countries, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, may also benefit from increased regional energy security. The development of Hai Su Vang could spur further exploration activity in the region, potentially leading to additional discoveries of petroleum resources.
Meanwhile, Vietnam is also exploring opportunities in renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, to diversify its energy mix and reduce its carbon footprint. The government has set ambitious targets for renewable energy deployment, aiming to increase its share in the energy mix to 30% by 2030. However, oil and gas are expected to remain important components of Vietnam’s energy portfolio for the foreseeable future.
Looking ahead, Murphy Oil plans to drill additional appraisal wells, including HSV-3X and HSV-4X, to further delineate the field’s potential and assess the viability of a full-scale development plan. A final investment decision is anticipated by the end of 2027, with first oil production potentially occurring within the next five to seven years. The success of these upcoming wells and the timely implementation of the development plan will be critical in determining the extent to which Hai Su Vang can truly transform Vietnam’s energy landscape. The long-term impact will also depend on global energy market trends and Vietnam’s broader energy policy decisions.
