Airlines are gearing up for a significant increase in passenger numbers over the next two decades. The International Air Transport Association predicts that the number of passengers will double from the 4.3 billion who flew last year, with emerging markets such as Asia Pacific and the Middle East leading the growth. This projection raises concerns about the impact on climate change, prompting carriers to work towards achieving “net zero” carbon emissions by 2050.
With an expected average annual passenger growth of 3.6 percent until 2043, the Asia Pacific region is poised to lead the way with a growth rate of 4.8 percent. Countries like India, China, Thailand, and Vietnam are expected to contribute significantly to this growth. In comparison, Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and the Caribbean are also projected to see increases in passenger numbers.
However, the mature markets of North America and Europe are expected to see slower growth rates in comparison. Despite the fact that air transport currently only accounts for less than three percent of global CO2 emissions, it remains a target for environmental concerns due to its impact on climate change and its serving of a minority of the world’s population.
Airlines are looking towards sustainable aviation fuels produced from renewable sources as a key solution to achieving their “net zero” target by 2050. These fuels are expected to make up 65 percent of the industry’s efforts towards reducing carbon emissions. Yet, the challenges of producing these fuels at scale, as they currently only make up 0.53 percent of airlines’ fuel consumption, will require significant investments to overcome.
Overall, the aviation industry is on track for substantial growth in passenger numbers over the next two decades, driven by emerging markets in Asia Pacific and the Middle East. However, this growth also presents challenges in terms of climate change and carbon emissions. Airlines are working towards a goal of reaching “net zero” carbon emissions by 2050, with a focus on sustainable aviation fuels as a key solution. As the industry continues to expand, addressing these environmental concerns will be crucial for its long-term sustainability and success.
