Satellite images indicate a significant decrease in traffic on the Crimean Bridge following a Ukrainian attack in July 2023, leading to speculation that Moscow may be planning an assault on Ukraine using alternative land routes. According to new satellite images captured by US space tech company Maxar and analyzed by Ukrainian intelligence agency Molfar, the bridge has seen very little traffic recently and may no longer be a primary supply route for Russian troops. The data suggests that Moscow may be using alternative land routes in occupied eastern Ukraine to transport military equipment, rather than relying on the bridge.
The images show a sharp reduction in traffic on the Crimean Bridge, with only one freight train carrying fuel tanks passing over it in February. From May 2023 to March 2024, around 1,097 freight cars were observed at Taman Station in Russia’s Rostov region, which borders Donetsk and Luhansk in occupied Ukraine. In comparison, only 203 freight cars crossed the Crimean Bridge during the same period. Molfar’s analysis suggests that Russia may be hesitant to use the bridge for transporting military cargo following previous attacks and is exploring alternative routes for supply lines.
Following the attack on the bridge in July 2023, traffic has resumed but with restrictions. Ukrainian security officials have noted a significant decrease in the number of trains carrying weapons crossing the bridge daily, with only five trains carrying passengers and general goods now. Molfar’s analysis indicates an increase in freight traffic between Rostov and Ukraine’s occupied regions, with Russia constructing new railway lines to connect Crimea and Russia to cities like Melitopol, Berdyansk, and Mariupol. This suggests that Russia may be preparing new routes for a potential offensive against Ukraine in 2024.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vowed to liberate Crimea from Russian control as part of Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russian forces. Moscow’s reduced use of the Crimean Bridge and increased focus on alternative land routes indicate a possible shift in its military strategy towards Ukraine. The construction of new railway lines connecting Crimea and Russia raises concerns of a potential Russian attack on Ukraine, with Moscow exploring alternative supply routes in anticipation of future conflicts in the region.
Molfar’s analysis suggests that Moscow may be preparing for a large-scale offensive against Ukraine in 2024, with the possibility of using alternative supply routes such as motorways through the occupied territories. The use of these land routes, which account for up to half of Moscow’s cargo transport in the region, indicates a shift in Russian military strategy towards Ukraine. The satellite images and analysis point to a significant reduction in the use of the Crimean Bridge by Russia, with Moscow exploring alternative supply routes to prepare for potential conflicts in Ukraine.
