The European Council is set to undergo a leadership transition following this week’s election, with four potential post-election scenarios shaping the appointment of Charles Michel’s successor. The appointment to this prestigious position is influenced by factors such as previous attendance at the elite gathering of EU heads of state and government, political experience, and the need to balance appointments of top EU jobs. With different scenarios in play, the successor to Michel will not necessarily be determined by a list of likely names but by the emergence of key configurations following the election.
One potential scenario, named ‘The Usual Suspects’, envisions Ursula von der Leyen’s re-appointment as Commission chief, leading to the presidency of the European Council going to the socialists. Candidates in this scenario include Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Portugal’s former head of government António Costa, who are seen as strong contenders for the Council chair. While Costa faced a corruption scandal last year, his reputation remains solid with other EU leaders, while Frederiksen enjoys widespread support in Denmark. Another possible leader in this scenario could be former Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, a socialist dark horse among EU leaders.
In a scenario dubbed ‘Knives Out’, there is the possibility of excluding socialists from power-sharing, potentially opening up the opportunity for liberals to take the helm of the European Council. French President Emmanuel Macron, who has experience negotiating EU top jobs, could play a key role in appointing a liberal leader to succeed Charles Michel. Candidates in this scenario include Estonia’s PM Kaja Kallas and Belgium’s PM Alexander De Croo, who are both seen as potential chairpersons for the European Council, albeit with some challenges and considerations.
A scenario titled ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ anticipates a challenging situation for the European People’s Party (EPP), where despite leading the largest parliamentary group in the Parliament, they may not secure the head of the EU executive. In this scenario, the Council presidency could potentially go to a strong leader from the centre-right bloc, such as Croatia’s Prime Minister Andrej Plenković or Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Former Finnish Prime Minister Alex Stubb could also be considered a long shot for this position, although he has recently commenced a new role as Finnish president.
Another scenario, ‘A Man for All Seasons’, contemplates the possibility of Mario Draghi emerging as a key player in the leadership transition within the European Council. As a versatile and respected figure in EU politics, Draghi could be a strong contender for a leadership role in the next EU legislative mandate. Similar to Thomas More in the classic movie, Draghi is viewed as a figure who could potentially take on any role within the EU. With his experience and reputation, Draghi could be a compelling choice for the European Council presidency, should he be called upon for the role.
