Despite global coffee price increases, coffee consumption in the UAE and wider Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region continues to rise, currently valued at over Dh12 billion. This growth is fueled by a strong out-of-home coffee culture, where approximately 93% of spending occurs in cafés and restaurants. While global arabica futures have neared $3.54 per pound and US cup prices have increased almost 20% since early 2023, the UAE market is demonstrating resilience and a unique approach to managing these pressures.
The rising cost of coffee beans is a worldwide phenomenon. Poor weather conditions in Brazil, a major coffee producer, combined with disruptions in other key growing regions, have tightened global supply. This has more than doubled wholesale prices compared to long-term averages, impacting roasters, cafés, and distributors across the board.
Why UAE Coffee Consumption Remains Strong
Unlike many mature markets, the UAE hasn’t seen a corresponding decrease in coffee consumption. Operators are strategically absorbing higher bean costs through menu adjustments, diversified sourcing, and improved operational efficiency, rather than immediately passing them onto consumers. This approach prioritizes maintaining the café experience, which remains highly valued by residents and visitors.
The appeal extends beyond the beverage itself. Consumers are drawn to the familiarity of their regular barista, the consistent quality of a trusted roast, a comfortable and inviting atmosphere, and the overall premium experience that is difficult to replicate at home. These factors contribute to customer loyalty and continued demand.
Additionally, the UAE’s robust infrastructure supports this thriving coffee market. Dubai, in particular, serves as a crucial regional hub with extensive warehouse facilities, specialized cupping labs, and quality control centers. These resources facilitate trade and ensure consistency, even amidst global price fluctuations. The country’s re-exports of coffee passed Dh3.5 billion in 2024, demonstrating its importance in the regional supply chain.
Regional Demand and Growth
The demand for coffee isn’t limited to the UAE. Saudi Arabia boasts some of the highest per capita coffee consumption rates globally, while Egypt and Morocco are experiencing rapid growth in imports. A young population, with over 60% of the MENA region under the age of 35, views coffee as a lifestyle product, further driving demand.
This trend will be prominently showcased at the fifth edition of World of Coffee Dubai next month, organized by DXB LIVE with the Specialty Coffee Association. The event is expected to attract a large number of attendees, including producers, traders, and buyers, all eager to explore new varieties, equipment, and strategies for success in this competitive market.
However, the global situation is prompting some shifts in consumer behavior. While not necessarily reducing overall intake, consumers in other markets are “trading down” to more affordable options, such as private-label beans or cheaper brewing methods. Sales of coffee machines have also increased, particularly in the UK, with a 43% year-on-year jump during Black Friday. International surveys suggest nearly four in ten coffee drinkers are now brewing more at home due to rising costs.
The Future of Coffee in the UAE
The UAE’s trajectory suggests that prices are unlikely to fall dramatically in the short term, but significant price spikes may be mitigated by the strategies employed by local operators. Café culture is expected to remain dominant, and the demand for premium and specialty coffee options will likely continue to expand. While home brewing may gain traction, it is not anticipated to replace the popularity of out-of-home coffee consumption.
The emphasis on experience, quality, and consistency will remain key drivers of consumer decisions. As long as cafés continue to provide essential social spaces for work, meetings, and relaxation, demand is projected to remain strong. The ability of businesses to adapt to changing market conditions and maintain a high-quality offering will be crucial for sustained success.
Looking ahead, the market will be closely watching the impact of ongoing weather patterns in key coffee-producing regions and any potential disruptions to the global supply chain. The success of initiatives aimed at promoting sustainable coffee farming practices will also be a critical factor in ensuring long-term stability and affordability. The interplay between global commodity prices and local market dynamics will continue to shape the future of coffee in the UAE and the GCC.
Justin is a personal finance author and seasoned business journalist with over a decade of experience. He makes it his mission to break down complex financial topics and make them clear, relatable, and relevant—helping everyday readers navigate today’s economy with confidence.
Before returning to his Middle Eastern roots, where he was born and raised, Justin worked as a Business Correspondent at Reuters, reporting on equities and economic trends across both the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions.