The USD/THB pair is showing mild gains in Friday’s session, trading near the 36.63 level. The cautious stance of the Federal Reserve is supporting the USD, delaying potential rate cuts. Strong economic indicators, including better-than-expected growth in US Durable Goods Orders for April, are also contributing to the USD’s strength. The focus will shift to next week’s GDP and PCE data from the US, which will provide further insight into the health of the economy.
In the American scenario, Federal Reserve officials are exercising caution against premature policy easing, citing the strong US economy and consistent inflation. The recent uptick in Durable Goods Orders for April, with a 0.7% increase, outperforming expectations, adds to the argument for patience in adjusting interest rates. The positive data, coupled with firm labor market indicators, such as lower-than-expected weekly Jobless Claims, support the officials’ stance.
The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 53% chance of a rate cut by September, down from over 60% earlier in the week. This shift reflects increasing hawkish bets on the Fed, which benefits the USD. In terms of technical analysis, the USD/THB pair shows signs of potential market recovery, with the RSI moving from negative to positive territory and the MACD histogram indicating diminishing selling pressure. The pair remains resilient above its Simple Moving Averages, suggesting a bullish outlook for both short and long-term perspectives if buyers surpass the 20-day SMA.
In conclusion, the USD/THB pair is trading slightly higher in Friday’s session, benefiting from the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and positive economic indicators. The upcoming GDP and PCE data from the US will provide further clarity on the state of the economy. Federal Reserve officials continue to exercise patience against premature policy easing, supported by strong economic data. The technical analysis shows signs of potential market recovery and a bullish outlook for the USD/THB pair in the short and long term.
