The Indian rupee experienced significant volatility in June due to elections, Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) outflows, and rising oil prices, which strengthened the US dollar against the rupee, according to a report by Bank of Baroda (BoB). However, the report provides an optimistic outlook, suggesting that the rupee’s situation is likely to stabilize, thanks to expected steadiness in domestic markets and renewed FPI inflows. The rupee is projected to trade in a range of 83.3 to 83.6 against the US dollar.
June saw a depreciation of major global currencies against the US dollar, with the dollar index (DXY) rising by 0.8 per cent, reversing the loss it had recorded in the previous month. The report highlights that the movement in global currencies was led by a rebound in the dollar, affecting currencies like the Euro and the Yen. The Indian rupee depreciated by 0.1 per cent in June, reaching 83.57 against the US dollar, despite expectations of a stronger dollar.
The report also discussed India’s trade performance in May 2024, which saw a widening trade deficit due to imports rising at a faster pace than exports. While exports grew by 9.9 per cent year-on-year, driven by increases in both oil and non-oil exports, import growth moderated to 7.7 per cent, influenced by a decline in gold imports. There was an increase in imports of capital goods and transport equipment, while imports of electronic goods slowed down.
Looking ahead, the report suggests that the pressure on the Indian rupee is expected to ease, with a forecasted trading range of 83.3 to 83.6 against the US dollar. This anticipated easing is based on factors such as stability in domestic markets, FPI flows, and potential weakness in the US dollar. However, the report also warns that renewed volatility in oil prices could exert depreciation pressure on the Indian rupee, despite India’s forex reserves providing a buffer against such pressures.
In conclusion, the report by Bank of Baroda provides insights into the factors affecting the Indian rupee’s performance in June, highlighting the impact of elections, FPI outflows, and oil prices. While the rupee experienced volatility, the report remains optimistic about its future stability, citing expected steadiness in domestic markets and renewed FPI inflows. With a forecasted trading range of 83.3 to 83.6 against the US dollar, the report offers a comprehensive analysis of the Indian rupee’s outlook in the face of global economic developments.
