Qatar’s economy is poised for significant growth in the coming years, with real GDP growth forecast at 5.2 percent in 2025, according to a new report by Fitch Solutions. This projection positions Qatar as one of the fastest-growing economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, driven by a surge in liquified natural gas (LNG) production and sustained investment in economic diversification. The forecast comes amid broader optimism for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies.
The positive outlook extends to the entire GCC bloc, which is expected to see accelerated economic growth, rising from 4.2 percent in 2025 to 4.8 percent in 2026. Qatar, along with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, are anticipated to lead the way, benefitting from their substantial financial resources and ongoing structural adjustments. This growth reflects increasing hydrocarbon output and consistent non-oil sector activity.
Qatar’s Economic Growth Fueled by LNG Expansion
A primary driver of Qatar’s projected success is the planned increase in LNG capacity. The phasing out of OPEC+ production limitations, combined with new facilities coming online, is expected to substantially raise hydrocarbon output and exports. This positions Qatar favorably to capitalize on continued strong global demand for LNG, bolstering both its economic momentum and external financial position.
According to Fitch Solutions, the broader MENA region’s current account surplus is expected to slightly diminish, moving from 1.8 percent of GDP in 2025 to 1.6 percent in 2026. This slight reduction is attributed to anticipated lower oil prices and heightened import activity. However, Qatar’s external financial situation is predicted to remain comparatively stable during this period.
Diversification Efforts Remain Robust
Alongside the energy sector, Qatar’s diversification initiatives are expected to continue yielding positive results. Increased trade through various agreements, robust re-export activity, and expansion within the manufacturing sector are all contributing factors. The tourism industry is also performing strongly, further supporting the non-oil export economy.
Despite potential headwinds from fluctuating oil prices, the momentum behind economic diversification in Qatar and across the Gulf is predicted to persist. A key component of this sustained progress is that a significant portion of diversification projects are being funded and managed by government-related entities and sovereign wealth funds, granting them the financial independence to proceed without overwhelming public finances.
Lower borrowing costs throughout the region are also expected to encourage investment, prompting greater capital expenditure and wider private sector involvement in essential growth sectors. These supportive financial conditions enhance the appeal of long-term projects designed to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons and foster a more resilient economic structure.
While hydrocarbon exporters within the MENA region are predicted to see a narrowing of their current account surpluses – from 2.9 percent to 2.7 percent of GDP – the adjustments are expected to be relatively moderate. Surpluses in Qatar, the UAE, and Bahrain, alongside deficits in Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Iraq, are not expected to experience significant shifts exceeding 0.5 percentage points in 2026, indicating a general level of external stability across the region. Fitch Solutions provides detailed macroeconomic research and analysis globally.
Looking ahead, continued monitoring of global energy markets and the successful implementation of Qatar’s National Vision 2030 will be crucial. The pace of LNG capacity expansion and the extent to which diversification projects attract private investment will further define the country’s economic trajectory. Any significant shifts in global oil prices or geopolitical tensions could also influence these forecasts.
The next major assessment is expected in early 2026 when Fitch Solutions revises its MENA Macro report, taking into account the actual economic performance of 2025 and updated projections for the global economy. Further details of the report were published in The Peninsula Qatar.
