Oil prices have been on a downward trend, reaching a three-month low near $76.00, erasing the gains from the previous week and losing more than 4% this week. Despite geopolitical headlines such as Russia’s actions in Ukraine potentially affecting crude supply, the US Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates has been a significant factor in the decline of oil prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has also been a key player in the market, trading below 105.00 as positive US economic data boosts the dollar’s performance.
Market movers in the oil industry, such as news on OPEC+ meetings and production cuts, have also influenced oil prices. OPEC+ has decided to hold a virtual meeting instead of convening in Vienna, with discussions focused on production cuts and individual member targets for 2025. Additionally, a significant decrease in oil production by Mexico has impacted global oil supply. Speculation on potential interest rate cuts by the Fed has been dwindling, leading to expectations of sluggish oil demand for the rest of the year.
Technical analysis indicates that the Fed’s decisions now control oil prices, as they flirt near a pivotal level of $75.27. With the possibility of OPEC taking no further action to support oil prices, there could be further declines towards $72.00 or $70.00. On the upside, key moving averages form hurdles at levels around $78.72 and $79.57, with a target at $81.18 once the $80.00 mark is surpassed. Failure to hold at $75.27 could lead to an accelerated sell-off towards lower targets.
Understanding WTI Oil, a type of crude oil sold on international markets, involves considering factors such as supply and demand, global growth, political instability, and OPEC decisions. The value of the US Dollar also plays a crucial role in determining WTI prices, as oil is predominantly traded in USD. Weekly inventory reports from API and EIA provide insights into supply and demand dynamics, impacting oil prices. OPEC’s decisions on production quotas, along with the actions of non-member countries such as Russia, have a significant influence on WTI prices.
