Europe needs to be better prepared to defend itself, the former Swedish premier warned. Carl Bildt, former Swedish prime minister and co-chair of the European Council of Foreign Relations, emphasized the importance of Europe being ready to shoulder a significant financial burden for the war in Ukraine. He also warned of potential tension with the US over relations with China if Donald Trump wins the race for the White House in November. Bildt highlighted the unpredictability of Trump and how it could strain the relationship between Europe and the US. He stressed the need for Europe to step up its financial support for Ukraine, estimating the cost to be between 0.2% and 0.3% of EU GDP.
Bildt also raised concerns about the EU-China relationship becoming a source of transatlantic tension if Trump were to win the presidential election. He predicted that Trump would increase tariffs on China, which could negatively impact global trade. However, Bildt expressed doubt that Europe would follow suit, as it could harm the European economy and further strain relations across the Atlantic. He urged Europe to maintain its independence and not blindly follow America’s lead on tariffs.
In terms of defense capability, Bildt stressed the need for Europe to develop greater independent capabilities. He highlighted Europe’s current dependence on the US for nuclear deterrence and the need for increased intelligence, command, control capabilities, and ground forces. Bildt pointed out that war is ultimately decided by what happens on the ground, emphasizing the importance of strengthening Europe’s defense capabilities. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission President, has pledged to enhance defense policy under her second term, but Bildt cautioned that defining the scope of the defense commissioner’s mandate could be challenging.
The role of the United Kingdom in European defense policy is also a concern, as it is a key military intervention power in Europe despite being outside the EU. Bildt noted that the UK’s defense industry is highly integrated with Europe’s, making it crucial to establish a clear relationship with the UK in order to forge a cohesive European defense policy. As Europe faces increasing threats and challenges, Bildt emphasized the importance of cooperation and unity in strengthening defense capabilities and defending European interests.
Overall, Bildt’s warnings and recommendations highlight the need for Europe to be better prepared and more independent in its defense capabilities. In the face of potential tensions with the US under a Trump presidency and the challenges posed by conflicts in Ukraine and relations with China, Europe must step up its financial support for Ukraine and maintain its own stance on tariffs. Strengthening defense capabilities, improving intelligence, and command and control structures, as well as addressing the complex relationship with the UK, are essential for Europe to effectively protect its interests and assert itself on the global stage. As Europe navigates these challenges, cooperation, unity, and clear strategic direction will be key to ensuring the continent’s security and stability.
