The future of the Mercosur trade agreement remains uncertain despite a recent vote of approval from a majority of European Union member states. While the deal, poised for signing this weekend, aims to create a significant free-trade area between the EU and Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, strong opposition persists, particularly from France. This opposition centers on concerns about unfair competition for EU farmers and the potential for lower standards in Latin American production.
Approved last Friday, the agreement is now facing a challenge in the European Parliament, where lawmakers could potentially block its ratification. Critics are also exploring legal avenues, including a possible case before the European Court of Justice, to halt the deal’s progress. The agreement’s fate is far from sealed, and significant hurdles remain.
The Path to Court: Challenging the Mercosur Trade Agreement
Opponents of the Mercosur trade agreement are preparing a resolution to request a legal review by the EU’s top court. The draft resolution, introduced by MEPs from the Green and Left groups, focuses on the “rebalancing mechanism” within the deal. This mechanism would allow Mercosur countries to impose compensatory measures if EU laws were to reduce their exports to Europe.
According to parliamentary sources, a vote on this resolution is scheduled for next Wednesday. If adopted, it would suspend the entire ratification process, giving opponents a potentially easier route to delay or derail the agreement than attempting an outright block. The move aims to ensure the agreement fully complies with EU treaties and safeguards the bloc’s legislative independence.
Valérie Hayer, a French MEP leading the Renew group, stated that a court review is “useful to ensure that all provisions comply with EU treaties.” A ruling against the legality of parts of the agreement could necessitate a complete renegotiation, potentially setting back decades of work.
Provisional Application and Parliamentary Divisions
Despite the looming legal challenge, the European Commission is considering a provisional application of the agreement after the signing ceremony on Saturday. Supportive nations, including Germany and Spain, are advocating for this swift implementation to counter the growing influence of the US and China in Latin America. However, Sabine Weyand, the Commission’s top trade official, has reportedly informed MEPs that provisional application won’t begin before Parliament’s approval.
The political sensitivity surrounding the deal and the unpredictable nature of the current European Parliament are contributing to caution within the Commission. MEPs remain deeply divided, with opposition coming from France, Austria, Poland, Hungary, and Ireland, while Belgium abstained in the initial member-state vote. Analysts suggest that as few as 15 to 20 MEPs could ultimately determine the outcome.
Previous parliamentary votes demonstrate the existing divisions. In October, a resolution on EU-Latin America strategy saw 269 lawmakers reject a paragraph welcoming the Mercosur agreement, with 259 voting in favor. This indicates the significant challenge facing proponents of the deal.
What’s Next for the EU-Mercosur Deal?
The next few months will be critical for the Mercosur trade agreement. If the resolution calling for a legal challenge fails next week, a formal consent vote in the European Parliament is expected between February and May. The outcome of that vote remains highly uncertain, and intense lobbying from both sides is anticipated. The debate over the agreement is likely to continue focusing on issues of agricultural competition and environmental standards.
Stakeholders on both sides of the Atlantic should closely monitor the developments in the European Parliament and any potential rulings from the European Court of Justice. The future of this landmark trade deal, and its implications for EU-Latin American relations, hang in the balance. Further information on trade policy can be found on the European Commission’s Trade website.