The NASDAQ100 (NDX) has been showing positive movement in the market, hitting a top of $19643 before dropping to $19330. However, the market pushed further and closed the July gap at $20200, raising the question of whether this was the end. To assess the market objectively, factors such as price patterns, trends, Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) counts, and technical indicators must be considered.
The rally from the September low has subdivided, leading to adjustments in the EWP. Despite this, the index has not broken below any warning levels for Bulls, indicating a continued upward trend. Warning levels have consistently been raised since the last update, with the first warning now at the previous day’s low. Without breaching these levels, the EWP count remains a possibility, guiding trades based on market movements rather than anticipation.
The NDX is currently positioned above key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) and the rising Ichimoku Cloud, pointing to a bullish trend in the market. Additionally, technical indicators such as the RSI5, MACD, and money flow (CMF) remain positive, further supporting the upward trajectory of the index. While the EWP suggests a potential significant top in the market, confirmation is needed through a price drop below certain levels.
In order to confirm a market decline, the NDX must drop below the FED Interest Rate Day low, with further confirmation below the September 6 low. This will indicate a correction similar to the one seen in July is underway. Utilizing the EWP will help predict where the next significant low may occur. As long as the warning levels are not breached, staying comfortable with long positions in the market is advised. Monitoring these levels closely will provide insight into market movements as traders continue to navigate through uncertain times.
