French President Emmanuel Macron is facing the possibility of a government and prime minister from a different party, a situation known as “cohabitation”. Macron called for snap elections after France’s far-right Rassemblement National scored a victory in the recent EU elections. The upcoming two-round elections on 30 June and 7 July will determine the composition of the National Assembly, the lower house of the French Parliament, in a unique semi-presidential government system.
In the French legislative elections, voters will choose one candidate in their constituency in the first round on 30 June. If a candidate secures an absolute majority, they automatically win. If no candidate receives an absolute majority, a second round is held on 7 July. Candidates with more than 12.5% of the vote can advance to the run-off, where the candidate with the most votes wins a seat in the National Assembly.
France’s political system is a hybrid regime with a powerful president and parliament. The president, elected directly by the people, holds specific powers such as dissolving parliament and calling referendums. The upcoming parliamentary elections could result in several outcomes, such as Macron’s party winning an absolute majority or facing a relative majority that requires alliances to pass laws. In the event of a deadlock, new legislative elections cannot be called for a year.
If another party wins an absolute majority, Macron would have to choose a Prime Minister from the winning coalition, resulting in a situation known as “cohabitation”. France has experienced three cohabitations in the past, the last one occurring in 1997 under center-right president Jacques Chirac. During cohabitations, the president has a more discreet role, and the party with the absolute majority in the National Assembly controls domestic policies.
In the case of a Macron and far-right cohabitation, the president would choose the Prime Minister, despite potential proposals of a far-right candidate. The president retains certain powers, such as commanding the armed forces, ratifying treaties, and accrediting ambassadors, while domestic policies are under the control of the party with the absolute majority in the National Assembly. Tension could arise between the prime minister and president on EU matters, as domestic policy and EU decisions are closely intertwined.
Overall, the upcoming French parliamentary elections hold significant implications for the country’s political landscape and governance structure. The possibility of cohabitation between Macron and a different party brings a new dynamic to French politics, with potential challenges and opportunities for cooperation between the president and parliament. As the elections unfold, the world will be watching to see how France navigates this critical moment of global instability.
