A recent claim by Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard that European Union imports from Russia have exceeded aid to Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion has sparked debate. Stenergard stated that while Europe has provided €187 billion in support to Ukraine, it has simultaneously imported approximately €311 billion worth of goods from Russia, creating a significant financial imbalance. This analysis examines the accuracy of her assertions, utilizing publicly available data to assess the extent of European trade with Russia and financial assistance to Ukraine.
The statement comes as the EU continues to grapple with its energy dependence on Russia and the ongoing need to support Ukraine’s defense and humanitarian needs. While sanctions have been imposed, significant trade continues, particularly in energy products. The discussion highlights the complex economic relationship between Europe and Russia amidst the geopolitical crisis.
How Much Does Europe Import from Russia?
Since February 2022, the EU has implemented sanctions aimed at reducing its reliance on Russian energy. However, despite a substantial decrease – around 89% according to Eurostat – imports from Russia remain considerable. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) estimates that EU member states have purchased over €216 billion in Russian fossil fuels, including oil, gas, and LNG, since the invasion began.
Recent data indicates a continuing, though diminishing, flow of funds to Russia. CREA reported that in October 2023, Russian fossil fuel export revenues reached their lowest point since the start of the war. Nevertheless, European countries, particularly Hungary, Slovakia, France, Belgium, and Romania, collectively paid approximately €938 million for Russian fossil fuels in that single month.
Currently, Russian gas still accounts for an estimated 13% of EU imports, a drop from 18% the previous year, but still a significant figure. The EU aims to completely phase out these purchases by 2027, a timeline that faces challenges, notably from Hungary, which is seeking exemptions. Isaac Levi of CREA noted that imports continuing outside the sanctions framework – LNG, TurkStream pipeline gas, and crude via the Druzhba pipeline – are allowing substantial revenue to continue flowing to Russia.
Beyond energy, Reuters analysis of Eurostat data from August reveals that the EU imported a total of €297 billion from Russia since February 2022, encompassing goods like fertilizer, nickel, and iron and steel.
How Much Has Europe Given to Ukraine?
Stenergard’s comparison aligns with headline figures released by the European Commission. The EU and its member states have reportedly provided Ukraine with over €187 billion in support since February 2022, with approximately 35% of this assistance taking the form of highly concessional loans. The European Commission confirmed this figure when contacted by fact-checking teams.
However, the total amount of aid allocated to Ukraine varies depending on the definition used. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which tracks international aid commitments, initially reports a lower figure of €150 billion allocated to Ukraine by EU institutions and member states. This difference stems from the Kiel Institute focusing on allocated aid – funds officially promised – as opposed to disbursed aid, which represents the actual payments made.
Expanding the scope beyond the EU to include geographic Europe – incorporating nations like Norway, Switzerland, the UK and Iceland – the Kiel Institute estimates total aid allocated at €177 billion. Including further commitments, but not yet allocated pledges, brings the total for the EU and its member states to €214 billion, and for geographic Europe to €273 billion. This narrows the gap with Russian import figures, but doesn’t eliminate it.
Furthermore, the Kiel Institute’s figures do not include the substantial costs European countries have incurred hosting Ukrainian refugees. Estimating the cost of supporting refugees, the institute suggests it could reach €160 billion, covering the expenses of accommodation, education, healthcare, and social support provided through domestic budgets.
Looking Ahead: Sustaining Support for Ukraine
The debate surrounding these figures underscores the importance of continued and increased support for Ukraine. The Kiel Institute’s data indicates a significant decline in military aid allocations to Kyiv since the summer, a 57% drop compared to the first half of the year. This emphasizes the need for European nations to reaffirm and fulfill their commitments to Ukraine.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently urged EU countries to reach an agreement by December to cover Ukraine’s military and financial needs for the next two years, a package estimated at €135.7 billion. The future of Ukraine’s defense relies on the willingness of European nations to close the financial gap and ensure a consistent flow of assistance. Monitoring these aid commitments and tracking trade flows will be crucial in assessing Europe’s overall contribution to the situation in Ukraine.
