The 2024 Formula 1 championship standings are poised for a dramatic resolution as drivers head to the Lusail International Circuit in Qatar for the penultimate Grand Prix of the season. A recent disqualification from the Las Vegas Grand Prix for Lando Norris and his McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri has significantly altered the title race, narrowing the gap at the top and setting the stage for a tense weekend. Norris currently maintains a lead, but his advantage is now a slim 24 points over both Piastri and reigning champion Max Verstappen.
The disqualification, stemming from a technical infringement, cost Norris a substantial 18 points and reduced his previously comfortable lead. While still in a strong position, the pressure is now on as the championship could be decided in Qatar or go down to the wire in the season finale at Abu Dhabi. The remaining two races, along with the Qatar Sprint, offer 58 points up for grabs, presenting a viable opportunity for both challengers to close the gap.
Can Lando Norris Secure the F1 Championship in Qatar?
The mathematically possible paths to victory for Norris are numerous, but all require strong performance this weekend. According to data from F1.com, Norris needs to extend his lead over his rivals to ensure the title is his before Abu Dhabi. Specifically, a lead of 26 points or more after the Qatar Grand Prix would crown him champion, regardless of the outcome of the Abu Dhabi race.
However, the Sprint race itself won’t be decisive. Even a maximum points haul for Norris in the Sprint – eight points – coupled with no points for Piastri and Verstappen, would still leave the title contest open with 50 points remaining. A more substantial advantage is required following the main race on Sunday.
Scenarios for a Decisive Weekend
Norris can clinch the championship with a strong performance, even considering potential tiebreakers. Outscoring both Piastri and Verstappen by at least one point in Qatar, alongside a Grand Prix win, would secure the title. This is due to a potential advantage in the number of race wins, and even secondary tiebreakers such as second-place finishes.
If Norris were to achieve this, his Grand Prix win tally would elevate to eight, surpassing Piastri’s seven and Verstappen’s six. In the event of a tie in wins, Norris currently leads in second-place finishes (eight to Piastri’s three), offering another layer of security. A win for either Piastri or Verstappen in Abu Dhabi, combined with a zero-point finish for Norris, would not be sufficient to overcome these countback scenarios.
But complexities remain. If Norris only outscores Piastri by one point in Qatar and does *not* win the Grand Prix, Piastri remains in contention. A subsequent win for Piastri in Abu Dhabi, while Norris fails to score, would result in a tie, awarding the championship to Piastri based on a greater number of race victories.
Similarly, Verstappen is not yet out of the running. A scenario where Norris outscores Verstappen by a single point in Qatar and Verstappen wins the Grand Prix – potentially through a Sprint win and second-place finish in the main race – would keep the Red Bull driver in contention. A Verstappen victory in Abu Dhabi, combined with a non-score for Norris, would then result in a tie, handing the title to Verstappen based on race win count.
The situation highlights the competitive nature of this year’s Formula 1 season and the importance of every point. The championship battle has seen several twists and turns, influenced by factors like race strategy, mechanical reliability, and now, technical scrutineering. The upcoming races will undoubtedly test the mettle of all three contenders.
Looking ahead, all eyes will be on the qualifying sessions and the races in Qatar to determine whether Norris can capitalize on his remaining advantage. The potential for unpredictable weather during the Qatar Grand Prix adds another layer of uncertainty. The final outcome may not be known until the checkered flag falls in Abu Dhabi, making the next few days critical for all involved in the championship fight.
The entire field will also be adapting to the Qatar circuit which has undergone revisions for this year’s race, presenting new challenges for car setup and driving lines. Further analysis of tire degradation and race pace will be key in predicting the ultimate results of this compelling Formula 1 contest.
