The French legislative elections this year will have significant implications for EU politics in the coming years. The recent first round of snap elections saw the far-right Triumph, President Emmanuel Macron’s bloc facing failure, and the rise of the New Popular Front. The composition of the next French government and its impact on EU policy are of critical concern, especially considering the potential for a minority government or a forced “cohabitation” involving Macron and a prime minister from a different political background.
Historically, France has experienced periods of cohabitation where a president and prime minister from rival political parties governed together. Despite ideological differences, these governments managed to cooperate with EU partners on crucial issues such as the creation of the single market, the launch of the Euro, and the negotiation of significant EU treaties. However, the current political landscape in France presents a deeper ideological divide, with radical parties playing a more significant role and polarization being more pronounced.
The possibility of President Macron having to cohabit with either the far right or radical elements of the left poses challenges for unilateral presidential action in the event of cohabitation. The limited power of the president in this scenario could impact France’s ability to implement EU policies such as the Green Deal, asylum package, migration legislation, and agricultural reforms. Additionally, strained relations between Paris and Brussels, as evidenced by the recent excessive deficit procedure issued by the European Commission against France, further complicate matters.
Addressing the EU’s economic and monetary strategies in the wake of potential governmental instability in France will be crucial. The need for increased public investment in various sectors poses challenges for member states, particularly France and Germany, to enhance their cooperation within the EU. Balancing domestic pressures with the need for common EU initiatives may require a technocratic government to depoliticize certain issues and push through necessary reforms. Finding a common ground and compromise amidst political uncertainty will be essential for the future of France and the EU as a whole.
