Oil futures saw a slight increase on Thursday due to a stabilizing US job market and slower-than-expected inflation data. This sparked expectations that the Federal Reserve might begin to cut interest rates in the fall. Brent crude futures rose by 32 cents to $83.07 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) gained 44 cents to $79.07. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits also decreased, showing signs of underlying strength and a steadying labor market.
Despite the low jobless claims, the report was weak enough to potentially allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates. This can lead to strong gasoline demand in the future, even though it has been lackluster. US consumer prices in April were up less than anticipated, further supporting expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. This could potentially make oil more affordable for holders of other currencies and temper dollar strength, ultimately benefitting the oil market.
Brent crude had experienced a low on Wednesday but subsequently recovered, with a slight increase in response to mixed US oil inventory data. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, indicating an increase in refining activity and fuel demand. Crude inventories dropped by 2.5 million barrels to 457 million barrels in the week ended May 10, below analyst forecasts.
Despite the positive inventory data, gasoline demand remained under 9 million barrels a day for a sixth consecutive week, below seasonal norms heading into the summer driving season. The increase in refining activity is expected to continue into the upcoming month, but weak product demand shows no sign of improvement. Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates noted that the strong refining activity could conflict with the ongoing weak demand in the market.
