New Delhi: The Indian economy grew 4.4 per cent in the October-December 2022 and is expected to grow by 7 per cent in the 2022-23 financial ending in March, data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday showed.
In the financial year 2021-2022, India’s economy grew at 8.7 per cent. Following are some of the excerpts of views from analysts and experts on the GDP numbers:
Dipti Deshpande, Principal Economist, CRISIL
The slowdown in the real gross domestic product (GDP) to 4.4 per cent on-year in the third quarter of this fiscal, compared with 6.3 per cent in the previous one, was driven by both external and domestic factors. The global demand slowdown — particularly for goods — had already begun to hurt India’s export and industrial growth in the second quarter. On top of this, the third quarter also reflected waning momentum in domestic consumption demand, possibly coming from sectors that were laggards in catching up post the pandemic and as a result, had seen a surge in recent quarters.
Some of these factors will continue to be a drag on growth going into the next fiscal. Our GDP growth estimate of 6 per cent for next fiscal primarily accounts for the impact of slower global growth and higher interest rates biting into growth for some interest rate-sensitive sectors, a sharper-than-expected global growth slowdown and forecasts of an El Nino that can disturb Indian monsoons are the other risks to watch out for.
Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge
The GDP growth of 4.4 per cent is marginally lower than our expectations. While moderation in GDP growth in Q3 FY23 was expected, the continued contraction in the manufacturing sector comes as a negative surprise. On the expenditure side, while the consumption momentum has continued, the fall in investment to GDP ratio to around 32 levels from 34 in the previous quarter is concerning. While exports have continued to weaken, with imports also slowing down, the net exports have been less of a drag in Q3 compared to the previous quarter.
Going ahead as the external demand conditions remain weak, it is critical that domestic demand should accelerate. Improving rural demand and rising rural wages are the positive developments for aggregate demand. However, there is expected to be some fizzling out of the pent up demand seen in the last few quarters. Government focus on capex and improving private sector intent to invest should support investment demand. We expect GDP growth to moderate to 6.1 per cent in FY24.
Anshuman Magazine, Chairman & CEO – India, South-East Asia, Middle East & Africa, CBRE
The Q3 GDP numbers are a reflection of a dip in demand amid monetary tightening. However, we expect the economy to hold steady despite the spillover impact of weak global conditions. We saw pockets of resilience emerge in the previous quarter which included improvement in rural economy and the goods sector outperforming services – this resilience is expected to continue going forward.
We also believe that India would continue to be the growth engine of the world, owing to its strong macroeconomic fundamentals and sustained domestic demand.
Ritika Chhabra, Quant Macro Strategist, Prabhudas Lilladher PMS
The Q3 GDP growth rate at 4.4 per cent is on the expected lines. The loss in growth momentum is due to fading away of the favourable base effect, the slowdown in pent-up demand due to high inflation & interest rates and a contraction in manufacturing sectors. Some of the high-frequency indicators were already pointing at muted growth for the quarter versus Q2, hence, the lower GDP growth rate in Q3 didn’t come as a surprise.
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