In the opinion of Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group, the upward bias could lose traction if GBP/USD breaks below 1.2350.
24-hour view: We indicated yesterday that GBP “appears to have entered a consolidation phase”, and we held the view that it “is likely to trade in a range of 1.2380/1.2480”. GBP then dipped to 1.2377, rebounded to 1.2455, and then eased off to close largely unchanged at 1.2415 (+0.01%). The price movements still appear to be consolidative, and we continue to expect GBP to trade in a range, probably between 1.2375 and 1.2460.
Next 1-3 weeks: Our latest narrative was from two days ago (15 Nov, spot at 1.2490), wherein GBP “is likely to continue to advance, but it has to break clearly above 1.2580 before a further sustained rise is likely.” Since then, GBP has not been able to make any headways on the upside as it eased off over the past couple of days. While upward momentum has waned somewhat, only a breach of 1.2350 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from yesterday) would indicate that GBP is not advancing further.
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