Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman rebuffed a recent attempt by former President Donald Trump to secure Saudi Arabia’s participation in the Abraham Accords, according to a report by Axios. The discussion, which occurred during a closed-door meeting in Riyadh on November 18th, highlights the continued complexities in broader Middle East normalization efforts. The Crown Prince reportedly linked any such agreement to tangible progress toward the establishment of a Palestinian state.
The meeting took place as the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues, and Trump reportedly believed an opportunity existed to build on the 2020 agreements that saw Israel normalize relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. However, the Saudi position, publicly affirmed by the Crown Prince following the discussion, remains firm: normalization with Israel is contingent upon a clear and irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood.
The Stalled Path to Saudi-Israeli Normalization
The possibility of a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal has been a long-sought goal of the United States, seen as a potentially transformative step in regional stability. While Saudi Arabia has not historically been hostile towards Israel, it insists on addressing the Palestinian issue before formally recognizing the country. This stance is rooted in the Kingdom’s historical role as a leading voice for the Arab world and its commitment to a two-state solution.
Trump entered the meeting anticipating forward movement, with his administration previously having communicated the expectation to the Crown Prince to discuss the matter. Sources familiar with the conversation have described a “tense” exchange, with the Crown Prince “standing his ground” despite the pressure from the former President. The focus on Palestinian statehood represents a key obstacle to reaching an agreement.
Key Obstacles and Saudi Demands
Saudi Arabia is seeking assurances that any normalization deal would be accompanied by concrete steps towards Palestinian self-determination. These include a defined timeline for establishing a viable Palestinian state, security guarantees for Palestinians, and a resolution to core issues such as the status of Jerusalem and the right of return for Palestinian refugees.
A U.S. official speaking to Axios indicated that while Trump remains hopeful for wider adoption of the Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia’s position has remained consistent. This highlights the difficulty of navigating the complex political landscape of the Middle East and the diverse priorities of regional actors.
During public remarks following their meeting, Trump announced that the United States would supply Saudi Arabia with the same advanced F-35 fighter jets provided to Israel. This move was widely viewed as a potential incentive for Saudi Arabia to join the accords, though it did not appear to sway the Crown Prince’s primary condition regarding the Palestinians. This offer is part of broader defense cooperation discussions between the two countries.
The situation is further complicated by the ongoing Gaza conflict. The scale of destruction and loss of life in Gaza has intensified international pressure on Israel to address Palestinian grievances, potentially strengthening the Crown Prince’s negotiating position. However, it also raises concerns about the feasibility of restarting peace negotiations in the short term.
The Abraham Accords, brokered under the Trump administration, represented a significant shift in regional dynamics, challenging decades-old assumptions about Arab-Israeli relations. These agreements promised economic benefits and enhanced security cooperation for the participating countries. Potential benefits for Saudi Arabia include greater access to American technology and enhanced security partnerships, alongside bolstering the Kingdom’s regional influence.
Conversely, critics of the Abraham Accords have argued that they sidelined the Palestinian issue and further entrenched the status quo. They contend that normalization agreements should not be pursued without addressing the fundamental rights and aspirations of the Palestinian people. This perspective is deeply held within Saudi leadership.
The Biden administration has signaled a desire to build on the Abraham Accords, but has also emphasized the importance of a two-state solution. However, there is an ongoing debate within the administration about the best way to achieve both goals. The current conflict has made aligning these objectives even more challenging.
The United States has historically played a leading role in mediating Arab-Israeli peace negotiations, but its credibility as an honest broker has been questioned by some in the region, particularly in light of its strong support for Israel. This perception influences Saudi Arabia’s insistence on internationally-backed guarantees for a Palestinian state.
Looking ahead, the next steps remain uncertain. Diplomatic efforts are expected to continue, with the United States likely seeking to find a formula that can address both Saudi concerns about Palestinian statehood and Israel’s security priorities. The timing of any potential breakthrough will likely depend on the evolution of the Gaza conflict and the willingness of all parties to compromise. The possibility of a wider regional agreement centered on the Abraham Accords remains on the table, but faces significant hurdles. Monitoring the ongoing discussions between Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Israel—as well as the broader dynamics within the Palestinian territories—will be crucial in understanding the future direction of this complex issue. Further escalations in the conflict could indefinitely postpone the possibility of normalization.
The US continues to explore avenues for de-escalation in the region and for restarting meaningful peace negotiations, with attention focused on the potential for regional security architecture changes. The fate of these efforts will heavily influence future movement toward Saudi-Israeli relations, making communication with all parties vital.
