The Indian Rupee has fallen sharply, reaching a level of Rs 84.09 against the US dollar. This has also led to a record low exchange rate of Rs 218.20 against one Omani Rial in Oman. Financial expert R.Madhusoodanan attributes this decline to various factors such as the heavy withdrawal of money from stock markets by foreign institutional investors, an increase in crude oil prices, tensions in the Middle East, and a strong US dollar index. Additionally, India’s shrinking Balance of Payments surplus and rising merchandise trade deficit have put pressure on the Rupee.
Despite weakening currencies in emerging markets and a significant decline in the Yen against the US dollar, the Indian Rupee remained relatively stable at 83-84 against the dollar throughout the year due to RBI intervention. India’s forex reserves have reached a record level of $700 billion, making it one of the few countries with such high reserves. However, the short-term outlook for the Rupee suggests more pressure due to various factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, crude oil price fluctuations, changes in the dollar index, and concerns about a US recession.
To mitigate the impact of these factors, the RBI may intervene to keep Rupee volatility to a minimum and prevent a significant decline in value. The potential cut in US interest rates, uncertainty in the crude oil market, fluctuations in the dollar index, and a shift in asset allocation from equities to gold could all influence the movement of the Rupee against the US dollar. As a result, the Rupee is likely to face continued challenges in the near future, with potential interventions from the RBI to stabilize its value.
