After the release of a strong US jobs report in September 2024, the Bitcoin price has been fluctuating between $61,000 and $62,000 as traders evaluate the economic outlook and geopolitical risks. The US economy added 254,000 jobs in September, exceeding Wall Street’s expectations of 147,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% and wage growth increasing to 4.0%. This unexpected jobs report led macro traders to reevaluate the possibility of a 50bps rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November, with markets now pricing in a 95% probability of a 25bps rate cut next month.
The report suggests that a soft landing for the US economy is still possible, indicating that the Fed may be able to control inflation without causing a recession. While this could lead to a slower pace of rate cuts, significant cuts are still anticipated in late 2024 and 2025. Continued strong US economic growth, coupled with a more accommodative monetary policy, could create a conducive environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. Despite this positive outlook, the Bitcoin price has decreased by 6.6% since the beginning of the week, raising questions about a potential rebound.
Geopolitical tensions continue to impact the Bitcoin market and broader financial markets. With Israel expected to retaliate against Iran following a recent missile attack, fears of a broader conflict have arisen. Such escalation could disrupt oil flows from the Middle East, posing a significant risk to the global economy and restraining risk appetite in various markets, including crypto. These geopolitical uncertainties have tempered the optimistic outlook, with concerns that October may not see the anticipated rally in Bitcoin prices.
Standard Chartered issued a note this week suggesting a short-term dip below $60,000 is likely for Bitcoin, but advised investors to consider buying the dip. Despite short-term challenges, longer-term drivers like a global monetary easing cycle could propel Bitcoin to new highs in late 2024 or 2025. Historical patterns, such as post-US election and post-halving rallies, indicate that Bitcoin could approach $100,000 in the coming quarters. While October may bring volatility, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains optimistic.
It’s important to note that cryptocurrency is a high-risk asset class, and this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware of the potential risks and fluctuations in the crypto market. The current geopolitical landscape, economic indicators, and Federal Reserve actions all play a crucial role in shaping the Bitcoin market. Traders and investors need to stay informed and adapt their strategies based on changing market conditions to navigate the uncertainties of the digital asset landscape. By staying up-to-date with authoritative sources like Cryptonews, individuals can make informed decisions in the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies.
